Higuma wrote:
> Very true Thom... when film bodies were being churned out they had
> more than 1 camera being produced at Sendai and perhaps at selected
> times even up to 3 where being rolled out in separate production
> runs...
And it was even worse than that sounds: the cameras didn't share many parts, and the plant had lots of equipment dedicated to building camera-specific parts (metal stamping machines, etc.).

> These days I understand that the D3's just keep dropping off the end
> of the belt day after day and are not produced in scheduled runs per
> se - which makes a bit of difference in how many and of what type can
> be produced...
AFAIK, the D3 and F6 are the only bodies being produced at Sendai at the moment (and the F6 almost certainly has a built-up inventory and is not being actively produced). Thus, you can't conclude what you do from the fact that D3's are being made continuously. The could be being made continuously because that's the demand level for them, or they could be being made continuously to try to build up an inventory that would allow them to drop in some other production. Here in the states, we're now starting to see the D3 "in stock" more often than not. That would indicate that current production levels are now starting to exceed demand by a small bit and that the initial buying frenzy is over.

So, the thing to look at is this: does the production level of D3's stay at max as demand starts to slack? If so, they're doing an inventory buildup.

> Surely the numbers being produced today for D3 is much higher than it
> ever was for a single film body like the F6 ???
For the F6, yes. For the F100, no. And you have to look both at peak and overall build levels. The D3 probably exceeded the peak build level early on, but I don't expect it to exceed the overall build levels of other cameras.

> Or... are you going
> out on a limb and saying the OP's speculation is correct ?????? 8-)
I think I've been clear: D3, D3x, and eventually a full frame smaller body. I've predicted the D3x for this year, and I've said that I don't believe that a full frame smaller body would ship this year, but might be announced this year. If Nikon manages to move the date up on that last camera, then they're doing even better at managing the design rush than I thought.

I'll point out one other thing that's interesting. Prior to the D300, all add-on vertical grips were named for the body on which they would mount (e.g. MB-D200 was for the D200). When Nikon announced the D300, one of my first questions was why is the vertical grip called the MB-D10? I've NEVER known Nikon to deviate from their naming policies, so I asked them where the D10 was. Hard to say, but I now wonder whether or not Nikon originally intended to have an FX smaller body at the D3 introduction but some problem or marketing decision made them quickly reposition the D200 instead.

--
Thom Hogan
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D40/D40x, D50, D70s, D80, D100, D200, D1 series, D2 series
www.bythom.com