Michael Kaminski wrote:
> I can't believe they should be timid like this. Maybe it's only another market they ty to gai. If they target the professionals and enthusiasts, they will be discouraged to see their sales drop unless they manage to make EXR work simultaniously in HDR and 12MP. Otherwise it would be a severe downgrade.
Personally, I'm amused. Someone in engineering managed to dust off their old APS sensor game plan and convince management it'll work for that new m4/3 emerging market. As if it worked for APS.
Seriously, though, unfortunately we're seeing the impact of what I wrote about some time ago: as long as Fujifilm continued to use Nikon bodies, they would always be a body generation behind, which puts enormous pressure on the IQ side, an area where Nikon has done pretty well lately. Meanwhile, if they want to do their own bodies, they'd have to come up with their own competitive phase detection AF system without tripping over patents. And, of course, there are other system things that come into play: lenses, flash, etc. That's not to say that Fujifilm isn't capable of those things. The problem is ROI. The investment is high, and the return so far on high-end equipment has been low and getting lower with each generation.
On the other hand, a m4/3 body is basically a compact camera at its core. Contrast AF and sensor used for all purposes (preview, WB, exposure, focus, etc.). Fujifilm /has/ continued to do compact camera development, so just scaling that into a larger sensor isn't a big investment. "Whoo-hoo, we're playing in SLRs again!"
The question is this: do they really understand what they're playing with? If they come out with a 12mp camera and 14mm f/2 or faster prime on it, maybe. But I suspect that they'll just be third or fourth G1 on the market. And as someone wrote, if the sensor is going to back down to 6mp for high ISO and high contrast work, then Fujifilm is just going repeat the mistake they made in DSLRs. Faus resolution is not resolution. And the E-P1 and G1h are already pretty darned good at higher ISOs, certainly usable into 1600, so the benefits aren't exactly certain for Fujifilm.
Mirrorless DSLRs are the new fad. Unfortunately for Fujifilm, they'll once again be competing with players who are going to iterate faster and better. At present, we already know about Panasonic, Olympus, Samsung, and Sony. There are clear rumblings that Nikon has something for early next year, too. So my early analysis is "typical Fujifilm: too little, too late."
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Thom Hogan
author, Complete Guides to Nikon bodies (21 and counting)
www.bythom.com
